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World Football Elo Ratings

                   

The World Football Elo Ratings is a ranking system for men's national teams in association football. The method used to rank teams is based upon the Elo rating system method but modified to take various football-specific variables into account. Elo should not be confused with the FIFA World Rankings, which is more prevalent because it is the official rating system used by the international governing body of football to rank national teams.

The ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches.[1] Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional.

The FIFA Women's World Rankings uses a modified version of the Elo formula. The FIFA men's ranking, however, uses a non-Elo formula.

Contents

  Top 60 ranking

Current table, as of 16 August 2012, of the World Football Elo rankings, compiled by the World Football Elo Ratings web site.

Each national team's FIFA World Rankings as of 8 August 2012.[2]

Elo Rank Nation Points Confederation FIFA Rank
1  Spain 2132 UEFA 1
2  Brazil 2033 CONMEBOL 13
3  Germany 2013 UEFA 2
4  England 1958 UEFA 3
5  Argentina 1957 CONMEBOL 7
6  Uruguay 1951 CONMEBOL 4
7  Portugal 1919 UEFA 5
8  Netherlands 1918 UEFA 8
9  Italy 1884 UEFA 6
10  Chile 1876 CONMEBOL 15
11  Mexico 1863 CONCACAF 18
12  Sweden 1845 UEFA 17
13  Croatia 1839 UEFA 9
14  France 1827 UEFA 14
15  Côte d'Ivoire 1822 CAF 16
16  Russia 1817 UEFA 11
17  Ecuador 1791 CONMEBOL 20
18  South Korea 1790 AFC 29
19  Japan 1781 AFC 22
20  Colombia 1774 CONMEBOL 21
21  Australia 1767 AFC 24
22  Denmark 1766 UEFA 10
23  Greece 1765 UEFA 12
24  Czech Republic 1762 UEFA 19
25  Switzerland 1757 UEFA 23
26  United States 1739 CONCACAF 36
27  Paraguay 1738 CONMEBOL 27
28  Turkey 1728 UEFA 30
29  Norway 1720 UEFA 25
30  Egypt 1710 CAF 40
 Republic of Ireland 1710 UEFA 26
Elo Rank Nation Points Confederation FIFA Rank
32  Iran 1703 AFC 48
33  Ukraine 1699 UEFA 45
34  Panama 1694 CONCACAF 54
 Peru 1694 CONMEBOL 47
36  Romania 1692 UEFA 51
37  Serbia 1683 UEFA 35
38  Scotland 1680 UEFA 46
39  Venezuela 1679 CONMEBOL 52
40  Belgium 1677 UEFA 53
41  Bosnia and Herzegovina 1671 UEFA 31
 Ghana 1671 CAF 32
43  Poland 1658 UEFA 54
44  Hungary 1654 UEFA 28
45  Costa Rica 1643 CONCACAF 62
46  Slovenia 1637 UEFA 33
47  Israel 1633 UEFA 82
48  Jamaica 1631 CONCACAF 66
49  China PR 1629 AFC 69
50  Nigeria 1628 CAF 58
51  Cameroon 1626 CAF 59
52  Bulgaria 1610 UEFA 94
53  Montenegro 1609 UEFA 50
54  Tunisia 1605 CAF 41
55  Zambia 1603 CAF 44
56  Honduras 1602 CONCACAF 65
 Libya 1602 CAF 38
58  Finland 1597 UEFA 72
59  Austria 1595 UEFA 60
60  Morocco 1594 CAF 68

  Strongest teams since the mid to late 1960s

Time averaged Elo or Elo-like scores are routinely used to compare chess player strengths.[3][4][5] The following is a list of the national teams with the highest average Elo score from 1 January 1970 to 1 August 2012. Before this time intercontinental play was fairly limited and many nations in Africa, North America, and Asia had played too few games yet to create a representative Elo score. Since Elo scores reflect past accomplishments, the table represents the relative strength of national teams since the mid to late 1960s.

Rank Country Avg Elo
1  Brazil 2010.3
2  (West) Germany[6] 1973.3
3  Italy 1924.2
4  England 1922.5
 Netherlands 1922.5
6  Spain 1901.5
7  Argentina 1899.0
8  France 1882.4
9  USSR → Russia[7] 1852.8
10  Czechoslovakia/Czechia[8] 1835.9
11  Yugoslavia → Serbia[9] 1822.1
12  Portugal 1814.2
13  Sweden 1797.1
14  Romania 1784.1
15  Poland 1777.2
16  Mexico 1772.5
17  Uruguay 1768.5
Rank Country Avg Elo
18  Belgium 1760.6
19  Denmark 1757.5
20  Scotland 1742.6
21  Paraguay 1728.2
22  Republic of Ireland 1721.2
23  Chile 1712.1
24  Bulgaria 1711.8
25  Australia 1694.6
26  Austria 1691.5
27  Hungary 1686.6
28  Switzerland 1681.4
29  Iran 1676.0
30  Colombia 1674.4
31  South Korea 1663.6
32  Wales 1657.4
33  Egypt 1653.8
34  Nigeria 1650.5
Rank Country Avg Elo
35  Greece 1650.0
36  Morocco 1648.8
37  Israel 1644.9
38  Peru 1641.2
39  Cameroon 1640.1
40  Norway 1636.6
41  Turkey 1632.4
42  Côte d'Ivoire 1630.4
43  Northern Ireland 1616.8
44  Ghana 1608.1
45  Tunisia 1603.9
46  Iraq 1597.7
47  United States 1596.1
48  Costa Rica 1592.8
49  Japan 1583.3
50  Ecuador 1572.4
51  Algeria 1569.7

  List of number one teams

The following is the list of nations who have achieved the number one position on the World Football Elo Ratings since 2000:

Start Date Nation # of days
5 Jun 1999  Brazil 389
28 Jun 2000  France 708
6 Jun 2002  Argentina 1
7 Jun 2002  France 4
11 Jun 2002  Netherlands 1
12 Jun 2002  Spain 4
16 Jun 2002  Netherlands 5
21 Jun 2002  Brazil 351
7 Jun 2003  Netherlands 4
11 Jun 2003  Brazil 8
19 Jun 2003  Netherlands 83
10 Sep 2003  France 291
27 Jun 2004  Czech Republic 4
Start Date Nation # of days
1 Jul 2004  France 10
11 Jul 2004  Brazil 3
14 Jul 2004  France 35
18 Aug 2004  Argentina 290
4 Jun 2005  Czech Republic 4
8 Jun 2005  Argentina 21
29 Jun 2005  Brazil 102
9 Oct 2005  Netherlands 3
12 Oct 2005  Brazil 265
4 Jul 2006  Italy 43
16 Aug 2006  France 52
7 Oct 2006  Brazil 122
6 Feb 2007  France 1
Start Date Nation # of days
7 Feb 2007  Brazil 140
27 Jun 2007  France 14
11 Jul 2007  Argentina 4
15 Jul 2007  Brazil 334
13 Jun 2008  Brazil /  Netherlands 2
15 Jun 2008  Netherlands 6
21 Jun 2008  Spain 368
24 Jun 2009  Brazil 373
2 Jul 2010  Netherlands 1
3 Jul 2010  Netherlands /  Spain 3
6 Jul 2010  Netherlands 1
7 Jul 2010  Spain Current

  Ranking by days as leader since 1 January 2000 (as of 1 August 2012)

Nation # of days Last Date as Leader
 Brazil 1878 1 July 2010
 Spain 1131 [10] Current
 France 1115 10 July 2007
 Argentina 316 14 July 2007
 Netherlands 109 6 July 2010
 Italy 43 15 August 2006
 Czech Republic 8 7 June 2005

  All-time highest ratings

The following is a list of national football teams ranked by their highest Elo score ever reached.

Rank Nation Points Date
1  Hungary 2166 30 June 1954
2  Brazil 2153 17 June 1962
3  Spain 2140 11 July 2010
4  Argentina 2117 3 April 1957
5  France 2105 15 August 2001
6  Netherlands 2100 6 July 2010
7  Germany 2099 4 September 1974 (as West Germany)
8  Italy 2079 20 July 1939
9  Poland 2046 1 September 1974
10  England 2041 22 October 1966
11  Uruguay 2035 13 June 1928
12  Russia 2022 9 October 1983 (as Soviet Union)
13  Czech Republic 1999 27 June 2004
14  Austria 1998 31 May 1934
15  Portugal 1982 15 November 2000
16  Croatia 1967 11 July 1998
17  Serbia 1961 25 June 1998 (as FR Yugoslavia)
18  Denmark 1960 13 June 1986
19  Scotland 1953 10 March 1888
20  Sweden 1950 25 June 1950
21  Mexico 1936 19 June 2005
22  Paraguay 1932 21 February 1954
23  Chile 1918 12 July 2011
24  Belgium 1916 9 September 1981
25  Norway 1913 13 June 2000

  Highest rated matches

A list of the 10 matches between teams with the highest combined Elo ratings (the nation's points before the matches are given).

Rank Combined
points
Nation 1 Elo 1 Nation 2 Elo 2 Score Date Occasion Location
1 4211  Netherlands 2100  Spain 2111 0 : 1 2010-07-10 World Cup F South Africa Johannesburg
2 4161  West Germany 1995  Hungary 2166 3 : 2 1954-07-04 World Cup F Switzerland Bern
3 4158  Netherlands 2050  Brazil 2108 2 : 1 2010-07-02 World Cup QF South Africa Port Elizabeth
4 4150  Brazil 2061  Netherlands 2089 0 : 0 2011-06-04 Friendly Brazil Goiânia
5 4148  West Germany 2068  Brazil 2080 0 : 1 1973-06-16 Friendly West Germany Berlin
6 4129  Spain 2085  Germany 2044 1 : 0 2010-07-07 World Cup SF South Africa Durban
7 4119  Brazil 2050  West Germany 2069 1 : 0 1982-03-21 Friendly Brazil Rio de Janeiro
8 4118  Hungary 2108  Brazil 2010 4 : 2 1954-06-27 World Cup QF Switzerland Bern
9 4116  Hungary 2141  Uruguay 1975 4 : 2 1954-06-30 World Cup SF Switzerland Lausanne
10 4113  West Germany 2079  Netherlands 2034 2 : 1 1974-07-07 World Cup F West Germany Munich

  History

This system, developed by Hungarian-American mathematician Dr. Árpád Élő, is used by FIDE, the international chess federation, to rate chess players, and by the European Go Federation, to rate Go players. In 1997 Bob Runyan adapted the Elo rating system to international football and posted the results on the Internet. He was also the first maintainer of the World Football Elo Ratings web site, now maintained by Kirill Bulygin.

  Overview

The Elo system was adapted for football by adding a weighting for the kind of match, an adjustment for the home team advantage, and an adjustment for goal difference in the match result.

The factors taken into consideration when calculating a team's new rating are:

  • The team's old rating
  • The considered weight of the tournament
  • The goal difference of the match
  • The result of the match
  • The expected result of the match

The different weights of competitions in descending order are:

The single difference is Elo giving a special treatment for minor tournaments, while FIFA consider them as friendly matches.

These ratings take into account all international "A" matches for which results could be found. Ratings tend to converge on a team's true strength relative to its competitors after about 30 matches. Ratings for teams with fewer than 30 matches should be considered provisional. Match data are primarily from International Football 1872 – present web site.

  Basic calculation principles

The basic principle behind the Elo ratings is only in its simplest form similar to that of a league, unlike the FIFA tables who effectively run their table as a normal league table, but with weightings to take into account the other factors, the Elo system has its one formula which takes into account the factors mentioned above. There is no first step as in the FIFA system where a team immediately receives points for the result, there is just one calculation in the Elo system.

The ratings are based on the following formulae:

R_n = R_o + K G (W - W_e)

or

P = K G (W - W_e)

Where;

R_n = The new team rating
R_o = The old team rating
K = Weight index regarding the tournament of the match
G = A number from the index of goal differences
W = The result of the match
W_e = The expected result
P = Points Change

  Status of match

The status of the match is incorporated by the use of a weight constant. The weight is a constant regarding the "weight" or importance of a match, defined by which tournament the match is in, they are as follows;

Tournament or Match type Index (K)
World Cup Finals 60
Continental Championship and Intercontinental Tournaments 50
World Cup and Continental qualifiers and major tournaments 40
All other tournaments 30
Friendly Matches 20

  Number of goals

The number of goals is taken into account by use of a goal difference index. G is increased by half if a game is won by two goals, and if the game is won by three or more goals by a number decided through the appropriate calculation shown below;

If the game is a draw or is won by one goal

G = 1

If the game is won by two goals

G = \frac{3}{2}

If the game is won by three or more goals

  • Where N is the goal difference
G = \frac{11+N}{8}

Table of examples:

Goal Difference Coefficient of K (G)
0 1
+1 1
+2 1.5
+3 1.75
+4 1.875
+5 2
+6 2.125
+7 2.25
+8 2.375
+9 2.5
+10 2.625

  Result of match

W is the result of the game (1 for a win, 0.5 for a draw, and 0 for a loss).

  Expected result of match

We is the expected result (win expectancy with a draw counting as 0.5) from the following formula:

W_e = \frac{1}{10^{-dr/400} + 1}

where dr equals the difference in ratings plus 100 points for a team playing at home. So dr of 0 gives 0.5, of 120 gives 0.666 to the higher-ranked team and 0.334 to the lower, and of 800 gives 0.99 to the higher-ranked team and 0.01 to the lower.

  Examples

The same examples have been used on the FIFA World Rankings for a fair comparison. Some actual examples should help to make the methods of calculation clear. In this instance it is assumed that three teams of different strengths are involved in a small friendly tournament on neutral territory.

Before the tournament the three teams have the following point totals.

Team Points
A 630
B 500
C 480

Thus, team A is by some distance the highest ranked of the three: The following table shows the points allocations based on three possible outcomes of the match between the strongest team A, and the somewhat weaker team B:

  Example 1

Team A versus Team B (Team A stronger than Team B)

Team A Team B Team A Team B Team A Team B
Score 3 : 1 1 : 3 2 : 2
K 20 20 20 20 20 20
G 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
W 1 0 0 1 0.5 0.5
W_e 0.679 0.321 0.679 0.321 0.679 0.321
Total (P) +9.63 -9.63 -20.37 +20.37 -3.58 +3.58

  Example 2

Team B versus Team C (both teams approximately the same strength)

When the difference in strength between the two teams is less, so also will be the difference in points allocation. The following table illustrates how the points would be divided following the same results as above, but with two roughly equally ranked teams, B and C, being involved:

Team B Team C Team B Team C Team B Team C
Score 3 : 1 1 : 3 2 : 2
K 20 20 20 20 20 20
G 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 1
W 1 0 0 1 0.5 0.5
W_e 0.529 0.471 0.529 0.471 0.529 0.471
Total (P) +14.13 -14.13 -15.87 +15.87 -0.58 +0.58

Note that Team B loses more ranking points by losing to Team C than by losing to Team A.

  See also

  Notes

  1. ^ "The World Football Elo Rating System". Eloratings.net. http://www.eloratings.net/system.html. Retrieved 26 February 2012. 
  2. ^ "FIFA/Coca-Cola World Ranking" (Press release). FIFA. 8 August 2012. http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html. Retrieved 8 August 2012. 
  3. ^ Arpad E. Elo, The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present, Arco, 1978. ISBN 0-668-04721-6.
  4. ^ Arpad Elo, Chess Life, 1962.
  5. ^ About the Chessmetrics Rating System, by Jeff Sonas
  6. ^ Representing West Germany from 1949 to 1990
  7. ^ Combined record of the USSR (1970-1992), the CIS (1992), and Russia national football teams (1992-present)
  8. ^ Combined record of Czechoslovakia (1970-1992) and Czech national football teams (1993-present)
  9. ^ Combined record of Yugoslavia (1970-1992), Serbia and Montenegro (1994-2006) and Serbia national football teams (2006-present)
  10. ^ Including current leader period up to 1 August 2012

  External links

   
               

 

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